S&P 500 earnings growth expected to reach 29% in third quarter
NEW YORK, Oct. 14. Wall Street expects the S&P 500 index to report a 29% increase in third-quarter earnings per share compared with the same period in 2025, according to estimate data collected by FactSet. This follows a 50% annual increase in second-quarter earnings that included large non-operating gains from technology investments.
NEW YORK, Oct. 14. Wall Street expects the S&P 500 index to report a 29% increase in third-quarter earnings per share compared with the same period in 2025, according to estimate data collected by FactSet. This follows a 50% annual increase in second-quarter earnings that included large non-operating gains from technology investments.
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and other major banks begin reporting results Tuesday, marking the unofficial start of the third-quarter earnings season. The projected growth is heavily influenced by the artificial intelligence boom, which analysts expect to continue driving corporate profits. In the second quarter, Amazon reported that its stake in Anthropic boosted its profit by more than $50 billion, a figure that significantly inflated the index's overall earnings growth.
Ben Snider, chief U.S. equity analyst at Goldman Sachs, noted that AI infrastructure stocks are expected to drive more than half of the S&P 500 EPS growth in the third quarter. Snider stated that a single group of ten companies is projected to account for over two-thirds of the index's total earnings expansion this quarter. Specifically, Micron Technology and Nvidia are expected to generate more than one-third of the earnings growth for the blue-chip index.
Broader economic data reflects this strength in corporate profitability. After-tax corporate profits in the second quarter jumped 18.2% compared with the same quarter of 2025, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Key measures of corporate profit margins across the entire U.S. economy are currently at some of the highest levels on record. These figures include inventory and capital depreciation adjustments and reflect profits made within the U.S., excluding profits produced overseas.
The surge in corporate profits comes as the labor share of national income falls to some of the lowest levels on record. The labor share represents the percentage of national income that goes to workers in wages and benefits, as opposed to capital, which includes corporate profits, dividends, rents, and interest. This shift in income distribution has contributed to a persistently negative sentiment among the American electorate regarding the economy and the AI boom.