Rubio warns Venezuela's Machado: Street protests won't get you democracy

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a direct warning against street protests as a means to establish democracy in Venezuela on Monday. The remark came one day after exiled opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Caracas, an event that has heightened tensions within the Trump administration regarding the country's political transition. Rubio told reporters, "You're not going to street-protest your way into a democracy," without explicitly naming Machado, though her recent return and criticism of a U.S. oil deal with the current regime have placed administration officials on edge. A White House source described Rubio as being "on a political edge," noting that Venezuela is considered the top foreign policy achievement of the administration and that any undoing of this progress would be a loss for all parties. A spokesperson for Machado did not return messages seeking comment on the remarks.

The core of the disagreement centers on the timeline for elections. While both Machado and U.S. officials agree that elections are necessary, Machado has demanded they be held in 2027. U.S. officials have not confirmed this date and instead require three specific reforms to be completed first. The first is the reform of Venezuela's Supreme Court, which is currently staffed by loyalists of Nicolás Maduro. Maduro was seized by U.S. forces on January 3 and taken to New York City to face narcotrafficking charges. The State Department hopes a new court will be selected by the end of the year. The second requirement is the reform of the National Electoral Council, which is also filled with Maduro's allies and helped secure his last two presidential victories. A new council is expected to be in place by early next year.

The third hurdle is addressing Venezuela's sovereign debt, which stands at $300 billion, a figure exceeding the country's gross domestic product. The timeline for resolving this debt issue remains unclear, and Rubio did not explicitly discuss it during his Monday briefing. In September, as reported by Axios, President Donald Trump discussed these three issues with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who is currently running the government. Trump privately told Rodríguez that elections must occur, though no specific date was set. A senior State Department official added during Rubio's briefing that reforming security services is another potential issue that could extend the timeline. The official warned that inheriting an economic crisis or disloyal security forces could destabilize any new government, potentially turning Caracas into a "murder capital" again.

Rubio stated he will not allow the current government to stall the process, noting that the administration ends in January 2029. He emphasized that agreed-upon timelines have been met so far and expressed his intent to remain in his position for two more years and two months to oversee the transition. Under current rules, Rodríguez would need to declare a presidential vacancy to trigger an election six months later, meaning the earliest possible election date is next June. However, administration officials stressed that no election date is finalized and it could occur in 2027 or 2028.

Tensions also exist between Rodríguez and Machado, who have expressed mutual opposition. Rodríguez accused Machado of supporting "external military-style aggression" against Venezuela, referring to the seizure of Maduro. Rubio stated he is focused on Rodríguez's actions rather than her words, noting she has eliminated Iranian and Cuban influence and extradited former Maduro ally Alex Saab. Rubio concluded that while the process is results-based, any attempt to derail the established timelines would cause significant harm to Venezuela.