Bloomberg survey shows S&P 500 end-2026 target slips to 7,967
The average S&P 500 year-end target held at 7,967 in a Bloomberg survey of 19 equity forecasters, down nine points from the September figure of 7,976. The survey was conducted amid a spike in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, energy market volatility from the Iran war, and a tech selloff triggered by doubts over AI spending.
The average S&P 500 year-end target held at 7,967 in a Bloomberg survey of 19 equity forecasters, down nine points from the September figure of 7,976. The survey was conducted amid a spike in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, energy market volatility from the Iran war, and a tech selloff triggered by doubts over AI spending.
The consensus target sits 4.5% above the index's close of 7,623.68 on Friday, October 23. This level implies a roughly 16% full-year gain for 2026, which would mark a fourth consecutive year of double-digit annual returns for the S&P 500. According to the Bloomberg data, one strategist raised their target and one cut it during the polling period.
HSBC strategist Max Kettner noted that updating views is now a weekly minimum requirement for strategists. The index set an all-time closing high of 7,818.93 on October 6 but has not reclaimed that level. The index closed Friday roughly 2.5% below that record, following a sharp Thursday selloff when revived concerns about AI funding sent Meta shares down more than 7%, marking the index's largest single-session decline in months.
Kettner added that lower yields should provide valuations some reprieve and that dips related to these factors, along with turmoil in France, will likely be buying opportunities for equities over the next few weeks.
Earnings season has provided only partial comfort. As of Friday, about 24% of S&P 500 companies had reported Q3 2026 results. FactSet data shows that 83% of those companies beat EPS estimates, above the five-year average of 78%. However, the average beat margin was just 2.1% above estimates, far below the five-year average of 7.5%. Wells Fargo characterized the start of this reporting season as one of the weakest on record in terms of surprise magnitude.
Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian indicated that while results are expected to be solid, corporate guidance regarding future economic conditions will likely have a greater impact on stock performance this quarter than the earnings numbers themselves.