Bitcoin falls to $63,304 as cooling inflation lifts equities but bypasses $BTC
NEW YORK, Aug 13. Bitcoin ($BTC) dropped from an intraday high of $65,234 to $63,304 after July consumer inflation came in at 3.4%, even as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 climbed on the same data. Producer prices, reported the next day, were unchanged against an expected 0.2% rise, and they did nothing to slow the decline. The divergence traces to a supply structure that has been absorbing every improvement in the macro backdrop before it reaches the price.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin fell from an intraday high of $65,234 to $63,304 on Aug 13 after July consumer inflation came in at 3.4%, even as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose on the same data.
- Between 45% and 46% of all Bitcoin (roughly 9 million coins) is held at a loss, and six-month buyers who paid an average of $68,700 are down 7.2%, according to Glassnode.
- Over-the-counter selling is pressuring the price, including $1.78 billion from miners shifting to AI contracts and Strategy's sale of 1,690 BTC between Aug 3 and Aug 9 at an average of $64,262.
- Bitcoin has traded in a $58,000 to $68,000 range since June and below every major moving average, including the 200-day near $71,900, for seven months.
- Traders have cut the odds of a September rate hike to 32% from above 75% a month earlier, with a pause priced at 63% after July payrolls shrank by 23,000.
NEW YORK, Aug 13. Bitcoin ($BTC) dropped from an intraday high of $65,234 to $63,304 after July consumer inflation came in at 3.4%, even as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 climbed on the same data. Producer prices, reported the next day, were unchanged against an expected 0.2% rise, and they did nothing to slow the decline. The divergence traces to a supply structure that has been absorbing every improvement in the macro backdrop before it reaches the price.
Between 45% and 46% of all Bitcoin outstanding is held at a loss, roughly 9 million coins, according to Glassnode. Buyers who entered over the past six months paid an average of $68,700 and are down 7.2% at current prices. That cohort sells whenever Bitcoin climbs back toward their cost basis, and the price has been confined to a range of $58,000 to $68,000 since June. Bitcoin has also traded below every major moving average traders follow, including the 200-day near $71,900, for seven months. Perpetual futures volume has fallen to a three-year low and the Fear and Greed Index reads 29.
Selling from miners and corporate treasuries
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $853 million in the week ended August 7, their strongest week since April, then reported outflows of $144.6 million on August 10 and another $61 million on August 12. Across 2026, those funds are $4.5 billion in net outflows.
Those ETF purchases occur on the open market, where each buy moves the price up. Against them sits over-the-counter selling that never reaches the order book. Miners shifting computing capacity to AI contracts have added $1.78 billion in selling this year. Strategy sold 1,690 BTC between August 3 and August 9 at an average price of $64,262, its fourth disclosed sale of 2026, bringing the year's total to 6,948 BTC. The company's remaining 840,447 BTC were acquired at an average cost of $75,385, placing those recent sales roughly $11,000 below its own basis. Crypto exchange Bullish reported a $280 million quarterly loss, driven largely by a $244.6 million markdown on its Bitcoin holdings.
Large holders have moved in the other direction. Wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC reached a 2026 high of 3.06 million bitcoin on August 8, worth around $196 billion.
Upcoming catalysts
Traders have cut the probability of a September rate hike to 32%, down from above 75% a month ago, after payrolls shrank by 23,000 in July. The odds of a pause sit at 63%. Year-end tightening remains priced at near 70%.
The Senate votes on the CLARITY Act on September 15. The Federal Reserve meets the following day. Some analysts expect Bitcoin to break below $60,000 and reach $55,000 before a cycle low forms. The weekly RSI has been rising even as the price fell.