Updated Aug 16, 2026
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Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 10%

Odds of the CLARITY Act passing now stand at 10%, according to Galaxy, which cited three unresolved policy disputes and a tight Senate calendar ahead.

By Dev Okafor2 min read
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Key takeaways

  • Galaxy puts the odds of the CLARITY Act passing at 10%.
  • Galaxy attributes the low odds to three unresolved policy disputes and a tight Senate calendar.
  • The three contested issues are ethics provisions, whether stablecoins can offer yield to holders, and developer protection language.
  • Senate lawmakers return in September, and Galaxy calls the window available in that session narrow.
  • All three policy gaps remained open as of Galaxy's assessment, according to the firm.

Odds of the CLARITY Act passing now stand at 10%, according to Galaxy, which cited three unresolved policy disputes and a tight Senate calendar ahead.

The issues Galaxy identified as stalling the legislation: ethics provisions remain contested, whether stablecoins should be permitted to offer yield to holders is unsettled, and developer protection language is still in dispute. All three gaps were open as of Galaxy's assessment, the firm said.

Senate lawmakers return in September. Galaxy described the window available in that session as narrow. Unresolved policy disputes combined with limited floor time drove the estimate lower, the firm said.

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Frequently asked

What are the odds of the CLARITY Act passing according to Galaxy?

Galaxy estimates the odds at 10%.

Why does Galaxy think the CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass?

Galaxy cites three unresolved policy disputes combined with limited Senate floor time as driving the low estimate.

What policy issues are stalling the CLARITY Act?

Contested ethics provisions, an unsettled question of whether stablecoins can offer yield to holders, and disputed developer protection language.

When does the Senate return to consider the legislation?

Senate lawmakers return in September, and Galaxy describes that session's window as narrow.