S&P 500 sits 0.8% below record with 10 weeks left in 2026
The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.17 on October 21, placing the index approximately 0.8% below its record close of 7,818.93 set on October 6. This October 6 milestone marked the index's 28th record close in 2026 and its first such high since August. With roughly 10 weeks remaining in the calendar year, the index requires only a modest increase to establish a new closing high.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.17 on October 21, placing the index approximately 0.8% below its record close of 7,818.93 set on October 6. This October 6 milestone marked the index's 28th record close in 2026 and its first such high since August. With roughly 10 weeks remaining in the calendar year, the index requires only a modest increase to establish a new closing high.
The S&P 500 has risen approximately 13% in 2026 as of October 21. This performance occurred despite the Federal Reserve lifting its benchmark rate in September, a move that marked the first increase in over three years. A historical review of the index's daily closes dating back to 1928 identified 16 years where the S&P 500 stood within 1% of a record close on October 21 or the nearest prior trading day. These years include 1928, 1958, 1961, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1993, 1995, 1996, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2024, and 2025.
In all 16 of these historical instances, the index set at least one new record close before the end of the year. The timing of these new highs varied significantly across the sample. In 1965 and 2013, the next record occurred on the trading day immediately following October 21. Conversely, investors waited until December 27 in 1993 for the index to surpass its previous high. Expanding the historical threshold to within 1.5% of a record adds three additional years to the list: 1980, 1982, and 1997. Each of these three years also resulted in a new record close before year-end.
A technical distinction applies to the earliest data point in this analysis. The S&P 500 launched in its current 500-stock format in March 1957. The figures for 1928 derive from its predecessor, the Composite Stock Index, a 90-stock index calculated daily by the Standard Statistics Company. All historical comparisons cited are based on price data only and exclude dividends.
Reaching a new record close does not guarantee a positive return for the remainder of the year. The index can achieve a high in November and subsequently decline to finish the year lower than its October level. In the reviewed sample, the S&P 500 rose from October 21 through the final trading day of December in 14 of the 16 years. The two exceptions were 1964 and 1968. In 1964, the index dropped approximately 0.4% during this period. In 1968, it fell about 1%, despite posting 10 new record closes after October 21. The index peaked on November 29 of that year at a level roughly 3% above its October 21 close, but ended December around 4% below that peak.
The median gain from October 21 to year-end in these historical cases was approximately 4%. Five of the 16 years (1964, 1965, 1968, 1993, and 2024) concluded within about 1% of their October 21 levels. In 2024 specifically, the index declined roughly 2.5% by October 31 before hitting a new record in early November, finishing the year up only about 0.5% from its October starting point.
Current market conditions present specific risks that distinguish this cycle from past examples. The Federal Reserve's September rate hike remains a factor in market dynamics. Additionally, the yield on the U.S. Treasury debt with a ten-year maturity exceeded 5.3% in early October, marking its highest level since 2002. The recent rise to the October record also relied heavily on a narrow group of stocks associated with artificial intelligence. Whether these companies continue to post earnings growth sufficient to support their current valuations may influence how the year concludes.