NVIDIA Forecasts $108 Billion Revenue, Margin Dip Expected
NVIDIA management forecast third-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, following the announcement on August 26, 2026. This projection represents a sequential increase of approximately 12.5% from the $96 billion reported for the second quarter. Since that date, NVIDIA stock has gained 8.3%, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.1% return over the same period. Technical indicators suggest the uptrend remains intact, with the stock closing at $230.48, above its 50-day average of $221.25 and 200-day average of $201.60.
NVIDIA management forecast third-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, following the announcement on August 26, 2026. This projection represents a sequential increase of approximately 12.5% from the $96 billion reported for the second quarter. Since that date, NVIDIA stock has gained 8.3%, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.1% return over the same period. Technical indicators suggest the uptrend remains intact, with the stock closing at $230.48, above its 50-day average of $221.25 and 200-day average of $201.60.
The initial market reaction was driven by earnings released around the same time, with NVIDIA stock rising 7.0% in the two sessions surrounding the event compared to a 0.7% gain for the S&P 500. Subsequently, the stock has added another 1.2% against a 0.4% index return, maintaining its position relative to the broader market. The data center segment continues to drive the majority of sales, generating $89 billion in the second quarter.
A key component of the revenue outlook is the launch of Vera Rubin, with production shipments beginning in August. Management expects this new product to account for about 20% of data center revenue in the third quarter. However, margins are projected to tighten as memory prices rise more than anticipated. The company forecasts a third-quarter gross margin of about 74%, down from the 75% reported in the second quarter. Executives expect margins to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter.
Growth has accelerated for four consecutive quarters, with revenue increasing 105.9% year over year in the latest period, up from a 62.5% pace three quarters earlier. NVIDIA previously guided for $91 billion in second-quarter revenue but delivered $96 billion. Supply constraints remain a significant factor, with executives stating that growth would be higher if supply were not limited. They expect these bottlenecks to persist at least through the end of fiscal 2028.
The company’s early forecast for fiscal 2028 calls for revenue growth of about 70%. Current trading levels reflect expectations for this future expansion, with NVIDIA stock trading at 28.9 times earnings compared to 21.5 for the S&P 500. The next major catalyst is scheduled for November 17, when the company holds its third-quarter earnings call. Investors will focus on whether revenue meets the $108 billion target and how gross margin trends align with management's guidance regarding memory costs.