Moderna Stock Hits One-Year High Amid Revenue Recovery
Moderna (MRNA) shares closed at $236.50 on October 15, 2026, marking their highest level in a year. The stock has gained 282.6% over the past three months, significantly outpacing the 4.1% return of the S&P 500. This surge follows a major catalyst on August 19, when Moderna and Merck announced that their personalized cancer treatment, intismeran, achieved its targets in a Phase 3 melanoma trial. On that day, Moderna shares nearly tripled. Detailed results for the treatment are scheduled for release at a medical meeting on October 24. The drug is not yet approved, and Moderna would share profits equally with Merck.
Moderna (MRNA) shares closed at $236.50 on October 15, 2026, marking their highest level in a year. The stock has gained 282.6% over the past three months, significantly outpacing the 4.1% return of the S&P 500. This surge follows a major catalyst on August 19, when Moderna and Merck announced that their personalized cancer treatment, intismeran, achieved its targets in a Phase 3 melanoma trial. On that day, Moderna shares nearly tripled. Detailed results for the treatment are scheduled for release at a medical meeting on October 24. The drug is not yet approved, and Moderna would share profits equally with Merck.
At current price levels, the company trades at a significant premium relative to the broader market. This valuation stands in contrast to the S&P 500, which trades at 3.1 times revenue. Moderna operated at a loss during the latest twelve-month period, resulting in no meaningful price-to-earnings multiple. The underlying business has shrunk considerably from its peak; the company generated $2.21 billion in sales in the twelve months through June 2026, down from $22.3 billion in the twelve months through June 2022. During the peak period, Moderna converted 70.2% of sales into operating profit. In the most recent twelve months, however, it recorded an operating loss of $3.32 billion.
Revenue has begun to recover, with increases reported in both of the first two quarters of 2026. Management expects full-year revenue to grow by up to 10%, a forecast that accounts for potential further declines in COVID vaccination rates. In July, management stated that Moderna’s newer COVID shot, mNEXSPIKE, captured approximately 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market in its first season. Most of the year's sales remain unreported; in 2025, the third and fourth quarters accounted for $1.68 billion of the company's $1.92 billion total sales. Even with 10% growth, 2026 sales would reach approximately $2.1 billion, falling short of the trailing twelve-month figure of $2.21 billion.
Newer products have yet to contribute significantly to revenue. Moderna’s RSV vaccine generated $8 million in 2025, a 68% decrease from 2024. To expand distribution in Europe, the company entered an agreement with the European Commission to provide up to 24 million doses of its mRESVIA vaccine. Its flu and COVID combination vaccine, mCOMBRIAX, received EU approval in April, but Moderna plans to launch it in 2027 and excludes it from its 2026 forecast. In the U.S., the company is awaiting approval of its stand-alone flu vaccine before seeking FDA guidance on refiling the combination product.
Moderna will report its third-quarter 2026 results on November 6, 2026. Management indicated in July that third-quarter revenue should represent about 55% of second-half revenue. This report will provide an initial look at the seasonal period that generated the bulk of last year’s sales. Over the two trading days following each of Moderna’s last six reports, shares rose five times, with gains reaching as much as 10.3% after the February 2026 report. The stock fell only once in that stretch, slipping by 0.5% after the August 2025 report.