Intuit shares down 18% as billings growth slows to 14.2%

Intuit shares have fallen to $331.80 over the last six months, an 18% decline that contrasts with the S&P 500's 8.9% gain during the same period. The drop follows softer quarterly results and has led analysts to question the stock's current valuation relative to its fundamentals. StockStory, a financial research firm, advises against buying Intuit at this time, citing specific concerns regarding revenue growth and competitive pressure.

A key metric in the analysis is billings, a non-GAAP measure often referred to as "cash revenue." This figure represents the amount of money collected from customers in a given period, distinct from recognized revenue which is recorded over the length of a contract. In the second quarter, Intuit's billings reached $4.37 billion. Over the trailing four quarters, year-on-year growth in this metric averaged 14.2%. StockStory notes that this performance slightly lagged the broader sector, suggesting that increasing competition is creating challenges for Intuit in acquiring and retaining customers.

Analyst forecasts for Intuit's future revenue further complicate the investment case. Sell-side analysts expect Intuit's revenue to rise by 9.1% over the next 12 months. This projection marks a significant deceleration compared to the company's annualized growth rate of 17.4% over the past five years. According to StockStory, this slowdown suggests that Intuit's products and services may face demand headwinds, as accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples while slowing growth has the opposite effect.

Profitability metrics also provide context for the stock's performance. While many software companies adjust profits for stock-based compensation, StockStory prioritizes GAAP operating margin because it treats stock-based compensation as a real expense necessary to attract and retain talent. Intuit's operating margin has improved, rising by 1.3 percentage points over the last two years due to operating leverage from sales growth. The company's operating margin for the trailing 12 months stood at 27.4%.

Despite these improvements in margin, StockStory maintains that Intuit is not one of its preferred picks. Following the recent drawdown, the stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 3.8 times, or $331.80 per share. The firm describes this valuation as reasonable but argues that the company's shakier fundamentals present too much downside risk. Instead of recommending Intuit, StockStory suggests investors look at other software stocks it considers more attractive at current prices.

The research firm also highlighted past performance of its growth stock recommendations to illustrate its methodology. Stocks previously included in its lists include Nvidia, which returned 1,460% between June 2020 and June 2025, and Tecnoglass, which returned 1,552% over the same period. Other names flagged by its AI system include Meta, CrowdStrike, and Broadcom, which returned 315%, 314%, and 455%, respectively.