Intel shares up 175% in 2026 still trail S&P 500 over ten years
Intel shares trade near $101, up approximately 175% in 2026, yet a $10,000 investment made in October 2016 is worth roughly $33,700 today, less than the approximately $42,900 value of the same amount invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the same period. The semiconductor company’s stock has recovered from a closing low of approximately $18 in April 2025, but the ten-year return profile remains behind the broader market benchmark. From October 2016 to the end of 2025, Intel’s share price moved from just above $37 to $36.90, resulting in a flat capital appreciation over nine years. Dividends provided the only shareholder returns during that stretch, contributing approximately $6,400 to the current value of the ten-year stake. Without those reinvested dividends, the investment would be worth about $27,300. Intel’s quarterly dividend peaked at $0.365 per share in 2022 before being cut to $0.125 in February 2023 and suspended entirely starting with the fourth quarter of 2024. The company’s revenue trajectory mirrored its stock performance, rising from $59.4 billion in 2016 to a record $79.0 billion in 2021 before falling to $52.9 billion in 2025. Recent financial results show acceleration, with second-quarter revenue increasing 25% year over year to $16.1 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share reaching $0.42, compared to a loss of $0.10 a year earlier. However, current earnings levels remain well below those of 2016, when adjusted earnings per share were $2.72. Management’s outlook for the third quarter, due on Oct. 29, projects non-GAAP earnings of $0.38 per share. Valuation multiples have expanded significantly during the recovery; current pricing reflects about 48 times expected earnings for 2027. For the ten-year Intel investment to match the index fund’s return, shares would need to rise approximately 27% to roughly $129. Intel previously reached a record close of $140.94 on June 22, at which point the investment briefly outperformed the fund, before falling 28% from that peak.
Intel shares trade near $101, up approximately 175% in 2026, yet a $10,000 investment made in October 2016 is worth roughly $33,700 today, less than the approximately $42,900 value of the same amount invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF over the same period. The semiconductor company’s stock has recovered from a closing low of approximately $18 in April 2025, but the ten-year return profile remains behind the broader market benchmark. From October 2016 to the end of 2025, Intel’s share price moved from just above $37 to $36.90, resulting in a flat capital appreciation over nine years. Dividends provided the only shareholder returns during that stretch, contributing approximately $6,400 to the current value of the ten-year stake. Without those reinvested dividends, the investment would be worth about $27,300. Intel’s quarterly dividend peaked at $0.365 per share in 2022 before being cut to $0.125 in February 2023 and suspended entirely starting with the fourth quarter of 2024. The company’s revenue trajectory mirrored its stock performance, rising from $59.4 billion in 2016 to a record $79.0 billion in 2021 before falling to $52.9 billion in 2025. Recent financial results show acceleration, with second-quarter revenue increasing 25% year over year to $16.1 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share reaching $0.42, compared to a loss of $0.10 a year earlier. However, current earnings levels remain well below those of 2016, when adjusted earnings per share were $2.72. Management’s outlook for the third quarter, due on Oct. 29, projects non-GAAP earnings of $0.38 per share. Valuation multiples have expanded significantly during the recovery; current pricing reflects about 48 times expected earnings for 2027. For the ten-year Intel investment to match the index fund’s return, shares would need to rise approximately 27% to roughly $129. Intel previously reached a record close of $140.94 on June 22, at which point the investment briefly outperformed the fund, before falling 28% from that peak.