Gas prices fuel voter anxiety among loyal Republicans

Gas prices have risen 37% since President Donald Trump took office, a surge driven by the Iran war that is now the primary concern voiced by Republican donors and activists at recent campaign events. Axios attended several of these gatherings, where loyal party supporters raised the cost of fuel more frequently than any other issue, signaling a shift in the political conversation despite strong party alignment.

At a campaign event in Nevada for Republican Senate candidate Marty O'Donnell, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) fielded questions specifically about high gas prices. One attendee, noting the price difference between California and Oregon during a recent trip, asked if Congress could intervene to ease state restrictions. Another questioned whether Republicans could do more to promote Trump's efforts to expand domestic energy production. Scalise acknowledged that the Iran war was driving costs up but stated that prices would fall once the conflict was resolved. He attributed the U.S. vulnerability to rising costs to Democratic energy policies.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) faced similar scrutiny during a recent trip through North Carolina and Virginia. At a fundraiser in North Carolina, Emmer described the current market conditions as unacceptable, citing "four-dollar gas, five-dollar diesel, six-dollar diesel." He told supporters that while the prices were high, they were not enough to make him vote for "communists." In a separate interview with Axios, Emmer emphasized that Democrats are correctly identifying affordability as a key issue. He argued that Republicans need to be sensitive to the fact that gas and diesel costs are way up because people are struggling.

The pressure is also affecting individual candidates. Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton privately attributed his campaign struggles to the war and fuel costs. In audio obtained by Axios from a closed-door fundraiser last month, Paxson told donors that affordability was "by far our biggest problem," specifically citing the war, gas prices, and diesel costs.

House GOP conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) addressed the strategy for dealing with this sentiment in an interview with Axios last month. She argued that "gaslighting" does not work with voters. Instead, she suggested that having an honest conversation and meeting voters where they are is a refreshing approach for Republicans to take as they navigate the affordability question.