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Fed appoints five outside task forces to review its policymaking process

WASHINGTON, July 18. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has established five three-member task forces to reassess the central bank's policymaking framework, drawing economists and business leaders with no recent ties to the institution. The panels are to submit recommendations to the Federal Open Market Committee by year-end.

By Grace Osei2 min read
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Key takeaways

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has created five three-member task forces to reassess the central bank's policymaking framework, using economists and business leaders with no recent ties to the Fed.
  • The panels must submit recommendations to the Federal Open Market Committee by year-end, a fast pace for a central bank framework review.
  • Task force leaders include venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, and former central bank governors Mervyn King, Raghuram Rajan and Arminio Fraga.
  • The panels cover three areas: Fed communications, economic data collection, and artificial intelligence and productivity.
  • The task forces have no independent authority and can only influence change by persuading FOMC members, who must ultimately approve any material changes.

WASHINGTON, July 18. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has established five three-member task forces to reassess the central bank's policymaking framework, drawing economists and business leaders with no recent ties to the institution. The panels are to submit recommendations to the Federal Open Market Committee by year-end.

A roster built outside the Fed's usual orbit

Task force leaders include Marc Andreessen, the venture capitalist; Doug McMillon, the former Walmart chief executive; and former central bank governors Mervyn King, Raghuram Rajan and Arminio Fraga. Economists on the rosters include Harvard's Raj Chetty and Greg Mankiw and Nobel laureate Thomas Sargent, the Fed disclosed.

Members with past Fed experience are not recent figures. Peter R. Fisher ran the New York Fed's markets desk a quarter-century ago. Karen Dynan left the staff in 2009, and Jeremy Stein's tenure as a governor ended in 2014. Mankiw served in the George W. Bush administration; Dynan served under President Obama.

The three-person format reflects a calculation. Smaller panels tend to produce cleaner, potentially contrarian recommendations than larger committees.

Scope and deadline

The panels cover Fed communications, economic data collection, and artificial intelligence and productivity. Recommendations are due to the FOMC by year-end, a fast pace by the standard of central bank framework reviews.

Evercore ISI economists Krishna Guha and Gang Lyu wrote in a note that the experts chosen "skew some to those who differ in at least some respects with current Fed practice," while calling each panel "serious and broadly balanced" and one that "will be taken seriously by the market, Fed staff and the members of the FOMC."

Two panels drawing the closest attention

The economic data collection group pairs Chetty, whose research centers on using administrative records rather than survey results, with McMillon. The pairing reflects a persistent gap: a Walmart chief executive receives fresh store data daily, while the Census Bureau takes weeks to publish a retail sales estimate.

The artificial intelligence panel includes Andreessen, who is bullish on AI-driven job creation; Charles I. Jones, a Stanford economist currently on leave at Anthropic; and Microsoft executive Asha Sharma. How those findings translate into monetary policy settings is, by most readings, the least predictable outcome of the five reviews.

The task forces carry no independent authority. Their influence rests entirely on persuading FOMC members, who in most cases must ultimately agree to any material changes to how the Fed operates.

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Frequently asked

Who is leading the Fed's review effort?

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh established the five task forces, whose leaders include Marc Andreessen, Doug McMillon, and former central bank governors Mervyn King, Raghuram Rajan and Arminio Fraga.

When are the recommendations due?

The panels are to submit their recommendations to the Federal Open Market Committee by year-end.

Why were three-person panels chosen?

The three-person format reflects a calculation that smaller panels tend to produce cleaner, potentially contrarian recommendations than larger committees.

Which panels are drawing the closest attention?

The economic data collection group, pairing Raj Chetty and Doug McMillon, and the artificial intelligence panel, which includes Marc Andreessen, Stanford economist Charles I. Jones and Microsoft executive Asha Sharma.

Do the task forces have authority to change Fed policy?

No, the task forces carry no independent authority and their influence rests entirely on persuading FOMC members, who in most cases must agree to any material changes.