Congress Braces for Post-Election Leadership Elections

Four sets of leadership elections are pending in the United States Congress over the next few weeks, triggering a realignment of power positions ahead of the new Congress convening on January 3. House Republicans and Democrats will select their top leaders, as will Senate Republicans and Democrats, with the entire House required to elect a speaker and the full Senate choosing a majority leader. The specific outcomes depend on which party captures the majority of each chamber following the election.

If House Republicans maintain control, the current leadership team is likely to remain in place. This includes House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota. However, if Republicans lose control of the House, the party will shift to a minority configuration with only two top leadership positions instead of three. This reduction creates uncertainty regarding whether Johnson will serve as minority leader or if President Donald Trump will appoint a different figure to that role. Whoever Trump wants as the top House Republican is the one who gets that slot.

Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio is identified as a potential candidate for the top House Republican position. Jordan has campaigned for Republican candidates and raised money for the party for years. He remains a close ally of Trump and maintains strong ties to the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Jordan previously lost bids to become speaker in 2023 when the House Republican Conference removed him as the GOP nominee. In the interim, he has worked to build bridges among Republicans who had opposed him.

For House Democrats, control of the chamber would likely see Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York become the first Black speaker in American history. Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts would move to majority leader, and Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar of California would likely become majority whip. If Democrats do not win the House, it remains unclear if their top leaders will remain in place, though rank-and-file members might call for changes after a midterm loss.

In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota faces potential challenges if Republicans lose control of the chamber. Thune does not wield the same political currency with Trump as Johnson and has resisted some presidential demands regarding the Senate schedule. If an opening occurs, Majority Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming is considered an obvious choice due to his proximity to the president. Other names to watch include Sens. Katie Britt of Alabama, John Kennedy of Louisiana, and Rick Scott of Florida.

Senate Democrats face questions regarding Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. If Democrats flip the Senate, Schumer likely becomes majority leader. However, if they fail to gain control, political observers do not believe Democrats have as good a chance at flipping the Senate as they do the House, making a leadership change less certain. Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii is a pending candidate to succeed retiring Minority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois. Schatz is described as an intense internal operator who understands the subtleties of the Democratic Caucus.

Other potential contenders for Senate Democratic leadership include Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland. Leadership elections usually take place in mid to late November, though delays are possible if it takes time to determine which party controls each body.