Bernstein sees bitcoin reaching $300,000 by 2029
$300,000 is Bernstein's price target for bitcoin ($BTC) by the end of 2029, the firm disclosed in a client note Wednesday. Analyst Gautam Chhugani attributed the call to the firm's price-to-marginal cost framework and what he described as a revival of the debasement trade, with investors rotating into scarce or tangible assets as a hedge against a weakening dollar. At bitcoin's last reported price of $78,045.70, that target represents a gain of roughly 285%.
Key takeaways
- Bernstein set a price target of $300,000 for bitcoin by the end of 2029, roughly 285% above its last reported price of $78,045.70.
- Analyst Gautam Chhugani based the call on the firm's price-to-marginal cost framework and a revival of the debasement trade as investors hedge against a weakening dollar.
- Bernstein also projected bitcoin recovering to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027.
- U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time this month, and the Treasury's expanded bond buyback program amplified concerns about the dollar and triggered a short squeeze liquidating about $2.7 billion in crypto shorts.
- Bernstein rates Strategy Inc. outperform but cut its 12-month price target to $350 from $450, still implying 176% upside from Tuesday's close.
$300,000 is Bernstein's price target for bitcoin ($BTC) by the end of 2029, the firm disclosed in a client note Wednesday. Analyst Gautam Chhugani attributed the call to the firm's price-to-marginal cost framework and what he described as a revival of the debasement trade, with investors rotating into scarce or tangible assets as a hedge against a weakening dollar. At bitcoin's last reported price of $78,045.70, that target represents a gain of roughly 285%.
Chhugani also set an intermediate milestone, projecting a recovery to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027. Bitcoin topped $80,000 on Monday for the first time since May and has climbed 21% over the past month. The advance followed the asset's strongest week in two years, during which it rose roughly 23%, from $62,836.88 to $77,226.96. Even after those gains, bitcoin has not returned to its 2026 peak of $94,820, set in mid-January, nor to its record of $126,198 from October 2025.
The dollar and the debt
U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time this month, a level that represents twice what the government carried in 2016. The Treasury Department then expanded its bond buyback program, and Bernstein said that move amplified concerns about the dollar's trajectory. The Treasury announced it would at least double operations in longer-dated securities, pushing yields lower and easing pressure on risk assets. That shift also triggered a short squeeze that liquidated roughly $2.7 billion in crypto short positions, according to CNBC.
Strategy Inc.'s position
Bernstein said the rally could benefit Strategy Inc., the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. Chhugani noted that Strategy holds close to 4% of all bitcoin in circulation and that annual dividend cash cover runs at around 3.9 times. If bitcoin strength continues and the company's STRC preferred stock recovers to $100, Strategy could resume bitcoin purchases, he added.
Bernstein rates Strategy outperform and cut its 12-month price target to $350 from $450, a level the firm said still implies 176% upside from Tuesday's close. LSEG data cited by CNBC shows 18 of the 20 analysts covering Strategy rate it as a buy or strong buy. The stock has shed nearly 20% so far this year and sits about 65% below its price from twelve months ago.