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federal deficit is projected to reach approximately $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026, a level that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues requires a deficit target below 4% of gross domestic product by the end of President Donald Trump's term.
This fiscal trajectory coincides with long-term bond yields exceeding 5%, creating a dynamic that economic analysts describe as a preview of potential debt stress.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit at $1.993 trillion, placing it in the range of 6.0-6.2% of GDP based on third-quarter GDP projections.
The Treasury Department is scheduled to release official results for the fiscal year ending in September within the next few days. Bessent stated in Dallas last month that the U.S.
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